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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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LANCET 2024年第10440期403卷 2204-2256页

作者： Vollset, Stein Emil Ababneh, Hazim S. Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H. A. Abd ElHafeez, Samar Abdelkader, Atef Abdelmasseh, Michael Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Abdi, Parsa Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdoun, Meriem Abdullahi, Auwal Abebe, Mesfin Abiodun, Olumide Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abouzid, Mohamed Aboye, Girma Beressa Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes Absalan, Abdorrahim Abualruz, Hasan Abubakar, Bilyaminu Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad Addolorato, Giovanni Adekanmbi, Victor Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Adha, Rishan Adhikary, Ripon Kumar Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adzigbli, Leticia Akua Afrashteh, Fatemeh Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Agbozo, Faith Agodi, Antonella Agrawal, Anurag Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahlstrom, Austin J. Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmed, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Syed Anees Akinosoglou, Karolina Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Akrami, Ashley E. Akter, Ema Al Awaidy, Salah Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Al Mosa, Amjad S. Al Ta'ani, Omar Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed Alahdab, Fares Alajlani, Muaaz M. Al-Ajlouni, Yazan Alalalmeh, Samer O. Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Tahiya Alam, Zufishan Al-Amer, Rasmieh Mustafa Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albakri, Almaza Aldhaleei, Wafa A. Aldridge, Robert W. Alemohammad, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Ali, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Iman Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Victor Ekoche Ali, Waad Al-Ibraheem, Akram Alicandro, Gianfranco Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, Francois Almazan, Joseph Uy Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Alrousan, Sahel Majed Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah Alsabri, Mohammed A. Altaany, Zaid Al-Tammemi, Ala'a B. Al-Tawfiq, Jaffa Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Appl Math Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Sch Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Pediat Hematol Oncol Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Div Plast & Reconstruct Surg Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Henry M Jackson Sch Int Studies Seattle WA USA Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth GBD Collaborating Unit Bergen Norway Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth Dept Dis Burden Bergen Norway Massachusetts Gen Hosp Dept Radiat Oncol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Dept Orthopaed Surg Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Dept Radiol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Div Cardiol Boston MA USA Massachusetts Gen Hosp Cardiovasc Res Ctr Boston MA USA Aleta Wondo Hosp Dept Clin Governance & Qual Improvement Aleta Wondo Ethiopia Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Publ Hlth & Infect Dis Rome Italy Univ Calif Los Angeles Doheny Eye Inst Los Angeles CA USA Univ Calif Los Angeles Radiol Dept Los Angeles CA USA Harvard Univ Dept Orthoped Surg Boston MA USA Harvard Univ TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Ctr Primary Care Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Harvard Business Sch Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Div Cardiovasc Med Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Dept Hlth Policy & Oral Epidemiol Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Dept Global Hlth & Social Med Boston MA USA Harvard Univ Beth Israel Deaconess Med Ctr Boston MA USA Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Orthopaed Surg Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Urol Dept Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Internal Med Dept SBMU Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Psychiat Nursing & Management Dept Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Med Genet Tehran

Background Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI;a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects mode

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Co‐Work, Co‐Create, Co‐Innovate: It's the Future

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design Management Review 2017年第3期28卷

作者： Doris Wells‐Papanek Luigi A. Pecoraro The founder and director of the Design Learning Network where she collaborates with educators practitioners and learners to design and research mindful learning experiences. Anchored in an action‐research human‐centered and sustainable approach the aim of the network is to enhance educational experiences for all educators and students involved. With more than 20 years of experience in the corporate world Wells‐Papanek worked for and collaborated with companies such as Xerox Apple Lotus Hewlett‐Packard Siemens Philips and Intuit where she designed interfaces managed creative groups and led technical teams. She holds a master's degree in curriculum and instruction design from National Louis University. While earning her bachelor's degree she studied product and environmental design in Victor Papanek's Master Class at the Kansas City Art Institute & School of Design. Completing his executive doctorate in workplace learning and leadership at the University of Pennsylvania. He leads collaborative efforts with diverse practice leaders to grow and develop highly tailored solutions that focus on the execution of business strategy the role of design management and agile methods intentional talent and learning and leadership development. Prior to his work at Penn he directed the Weatherhead Executive Education Custom Corporate Solutions practice for four years and the EMBA program for 18 months. He led the Career Management Center for IIT's Stuart School of Business for three years and served for two years on staff as a leadership and career coach for MBAs at John Carroll University's Boler School of Business.

These two authors met at DMI's 2016 Academic Conference. Pecoraro enjoyed Wells‐Papanek's approach to integrating creative problem‐solving into the educational process. Wells‐Papanek was intrigued by Pecoraro's perspective on learning, leadership, and innovation with students in the corporate setting. Their conversations led to this article.

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Development and psychometric validation of the second version of the Coronary Artery Disease Education Questionnaire (CADE-Q II)

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PATIENT EDUCATION AND COUNSELING 2015年第3期98卷 378-383页

作者： Ghisi, Gabriela Lima de Melo Grace, Sherry L. Thomas, Scott Evans, Michael F. Oh, Paul Univ Toronto Dept Exercise Sci Fac Kinesiol & Phys Educ Toronto ON Canada Univ Hlth Network Cardiac Rehabil & Prevent Program Toronto Rehabil Inst Toronto ON Canada York Univ Sch Kinesiol & Hlth Sci Toronto ON M3J 2R7 Canada St Michaels Hosp Hlth Design Lab Toronto ON M5B 1W8 Canada

Objectives: To develop and psychometrically-validate a revised version of the Coronary Artery Disease Education Questionnaire (CADE-Q) - a tool to assess patients' knowledge about CAD in cardiac rehabilitation (CR). Methods: After a needs assessment, a literature review and focus group with CR experts, the revised questionnaire was developed. It underwent pilot-testing in 30 patients, which lead to further refinement. The questionnaire was then psychometrically-tested in 307 CR patients. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha, the dimensional structure through exploratory factor analysis, and criterion validity with regard to educational level. Results: Cronbach's alpha was 0.91. Criterion validity was supported by significant differences in mean scores by educational level (p < 0.001). Factor analysis revealed four factors, which were internally-consistent (0.65-0.77), and well-defined by items. The mean total score was 64.2 +/- 18.1/93. Patients with a history of heart failure, cardiomyopathy and percutaneous coronary intervention (p < 0.05) had significantly higher knowledge scores compared with patients without such a history. Knowledge about exercise and their medical condition was significantly higher than risk factors, nutrition and psychosocial risk. Conclusions: The CADE-QII has good reliability and validity. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词： Coronary Artery Disease Patient education Health knowledge, attitudes, practice Questionnaires Psychometric validation

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Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

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BMC MEDICINE 2021年第1期19卷 4-4页

作者： Cork, Michael A. Henry, Nathaniel J. Watson, Stefanie Croneberger, Andrew J. Baumann, Mathew Letourneau, Ian D. Yang, Mingyou Serfes, Audrey L. Abbas, Jaffar Abbasi, Nooshin Abbastabar, Hedayat Abreu, Lucas G. Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Achappa, Basavaprabhu Adabi, Maryam Adal, Tadele G. Adegbosin, Adeyinka E. Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Agudelo-Botero, Marcela Ahinkorah, Bright O. Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmed, Muktar B. Alhassan, Robert K. Alipour, Vahid Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Tudorel Anvari, Davood Aqeel, Muhammad Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Asaad, Malke Atnafu, Desta D. Atreya, Alok Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Azari, Samad Darshan, B. B. Baig, Atif A. Banach, Maciej Bante, Simachew A. Barboza, Miguel A. Basu, Sanjay Bedi, Neeraj Bejarano Ramirez, Diana F. Bensenor, Isabela M. Beyene, Fentahun Y. Bezabih, Yihienew M. Bhagavathula, Akshaya S. Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bijani, Ali Birlik, Sait M. Bitew, Zebenay W. Bohlouli, Somayeh Boloor, Archith Brunoni, Andre R. Butt, Zahid A. Cardenas, Rosario Carvalho, Felix Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. Charan, Jaykaran Chatterjee, Souranshu Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Christopher, Devasahayam J. Chu, Dinh-Toi Cook, Aubrey J. Cormier, Natalie M. Dahlawi, Saad M. A. Daoud, Farah Davila Cervantes, Claudio A. Weaver, Nicole Davis De la Hoz, Fernando P. Demeke, Feleke M. Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar Deribe, Kebede Deuba, Keshab Dharmaratne, Samath D. Dhungana, Govinda P. Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Duraes, Andre R. Eagan, Arielle W. Earl, Lucas Effiong, Andem Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed El Tantawi, Maha Elayedath, Rajesh El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. Faraon, Emerito Jose A. Faro, Andre Fattahi, Nazir Fauk, Nelsensius K. Fernandes, Eduarda Filip, Irina Fischer, Florian Foigt, Nataliya A. Foroutan, Masoud Fukumoto, Takeshi Gad, Mohamed M. Gebremariam, Tesfay B. B. Gebremedhin, Ketema B. Gebremeskel, Gebreamla Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Oxford Big Data Inst Oxford England Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ Antai Coll Econ Shanghai Peoples R China McGill Univ Montreal Neurol Inst Montreal PQ Canada Univ Tehran Med Sci Adv Diagnost & Intervent Radiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Fed Minas Gerais Dept Pediat Dent Belo Horizonte MG Brazil Univ Sharjah Dept Clin Sci Sharjah U Arab Emirates Manipal Acad Higher Educ Dept Internal Med Mangalore India Hamadan Univ Med Sci Hamadan Iran Wolkite Univ Dept Publ Hlth Wolkite Ethiopia Griffith Univ Sch Med Gold Coast Qld Australia Kings Coll London Dept Populat Hlth Sci London England Stellenbosch Univ Ctr Excellence Epidemiol Modelin & Anal Stellenbosch South Africa Stellenbosch Univ Dept Global Hlth Cape Town South Africa Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico Ctr Policy Populat & Hlth Res Mexico City DF Mexico Univ Technol Sydney Australian Ctr Publ & Populat Hlth Res ACPP HR Sydney NSW Australia Univ Nottingham Lincoln Med Sch Lincoln England Univ Lincoln Lincoln Med Sch Lincoln England Jimma Univ Dept Epidemiol Jimma Ethiopia Univ South Australia Australian Ctr Precis Hlth Adelaide SA Australia Univ Hlth & Allied Sci Inst Hlth Res Ho Ghana Iran Univ Med Sci Hlth Management & Econ Res Ctr Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Hlth Econ Dept Tehran Iran Arak Univ Med Sci Dept Epidemiol Arak Iran Univ Cartagena Res Grp Hlth Econ Cartagena Colombia ALZAK Fdn Res Grp Hosp Management & Hlth Policies Cartagena Colombia Carol Davila Univ Med & Pharm Bucharest Romania Bucharest Univ Econ Studies Stat & Econometr Dept Bucharest Romania Mazandaran Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol Sari Iran Iranshahr Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol Iranshahr Iran Fdn Univ Islamabad Dept Psychol Rawalpandi Pakistan Birmingham City Univ Dept Publ Hlth Birmingham W Midlands England Univ Texas Houston Dept Plast Surg Houston TX USA Bahir Dar Univ Dept Hlth Syst & Hlth Econ Bahir Dar Ethiopia Lumbini Med Coll D

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and *** performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study *** countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in *** subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local tre

关键词： HIV AIDS Latin America HIV mortality Vital registration Small area estimation Mapping Spatial statistics

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The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children

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Nature Communications 2022年第1期13卷 1-14页

作者： Reiner, Robert C. Welgan, Catherine A. Troeger, Christopher E. Baumann, Mathew M. Weiss, Daniel J. Deshpande, Aniruddha Blacker, Brigette F. Miller-Petrie, Molly K. Earl, Lucas Bhatt, Samir Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Adekanmbi, Victor Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Aghaali, Mohammad Aji, Budi Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Saqib Alizade, Hesam Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Amare, Azmeraw T. Amini, Saeed Amugsi, Dickson A. Ancuceanu, Robert Andrei, Catalina Liliana Ansari, Fereshteh Anvari, Davood Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Arabloo, Jalal Aremu, Olatunde Atout, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Ausloos, Marcel Ausloos, Floriane Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Yared Asmare Azene, Zelalem Nigussie Badawi, Alaa Baig, Atif Amin Banach, Maciej Bedi, Neeraj Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhandari, Dinesh Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Bijani, Ali Birhanu, Tesega Tesega Mengistu Bitew, Zebenay Workneh Boloor, Archith Brady, Oliver J. Butt, Zahid A. Car, Josip Carvalho, Felix Casey, Daniel C. Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chu, Dinh-Toi Coelho, Camila H. Cook, Aubrey J. Damiani, Giovanni Daoud, Farah Gela, Jiregna Darega Darwish, Amira Hamed Daryani, Ahmad Das, Jai K. Davis Weaver, Nicole Deribe, Kebede Desalew, Assefa Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda Dianatinasab, Mostafa Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Dorostkar, Fariba Dubljanin, Eleonora Duko, Bereket Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura Effiong, Andem El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa El Tantawi, Maha Enany, Shymaa Fattahi, Nazir Feigin, Valery L. Fernandes, Eduarda Ferrara, Pietro Fischer, Florian Foigt, Nataliya A. Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin Foroutan, Masoud Frostad, Joseph Jon Fukumoto, Takeshi Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji Gebrekrstos, Hailemikael Gebrekidan G. K. Gebremeskel, Leake Gebreslassie, Assefa Ayalew Gething, Peter W. Gezae, Kebede Embaye Ghadiri, Keyghobad Ghashghaee, Ahmad Golechha, Mahaveer Gubar Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Malaria Atlas Project University of Oxford Oxford United Kingdom Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Laboratory Medicine Karolinska University Hospital Huddinge Sweden Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Public Health Debre Berhan University Debre Berhan Ethiopia Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Population Health Sciences King’s College London London United Kingdom Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa Department of Global Health Stellenbosch University Cape Town South Africa Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Qom University of Medical Sciences Qom Iran Faculty of Medicine and Public Health Jenderal Soedirman University Purwokerto Indonesia Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research Rochester MN United States John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO United States Clinical Epidemiology Center Department of Veterans Affairs St Louis MO United States Institute of Health Research University of Health and Allied Sciences Ho Ghana Department of Information Systems College of Economics and Political Science Sultan Qaboos University Muscat Oman Infectious and Tropical Disease Research Center Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences Bandar Abbas Iran Department of Health Policy and Management Kuwait University Safat Kuwait International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding National University of Malaysia Bandar Tun Razak Malaysia Department of Epidemiology Arak University of Medical Sciences Arak Iran Medical Research Center

Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival. © 2022, The Author(s).

关键词： Biogeography Epidemiology Infectious diseases Malaria

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Changing life expectancy in European countries 1990–2021: a subanalysis of causes and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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The Lancet Public Health 2025年第3期10卷 e172-e188页

作者： Steel, Nicholas Bauer-Staeb, Clarissa Maria Mercedes Ford, John A. Abbafati, Cristiana Abdalla, Mohammed Altigani Abdelkader, Atef Abdi, Parsa Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Abiodun, Olugbenga Olusola Abolhassani, Hassan Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Abukhadijah, Hana J. Abu-Zaid, Ahmed Addo, Isaac Yeboah Addolorato, Giovanni Adekanmbi, Victor Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Agardh, Emilie E. Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahmad, Danish Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Syed Anees Akinosoglou, Karolina Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Al Awaidy, Salah Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed Aldridge, Robert W. Algammal, Abdelazeem M. Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Ali, Abid Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Syed Shujait Ali, Waad Alicandro, Gianfranco Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Al-Jumaily, Adel Allebeck, Peter Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Al-Rifai, Rami H. Alsabri, Mohammed A. Alshahrani, Najim Z. Aluh, Deborah Oyine Al-Wardat, Mohammad Al-Zyoud, Walid A. Amiri, Sohrab Anderlini, Deanna Andrei, Catalina Liliana Anil, Abhishek Anvari, Saeid Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw Aquilano, Michele Arabloo, Jalal Arafat, Mosab Areda, Demelash Aremu, Abdulfatai Armani, Keivan Armocida, Benedetta Ärnlöv, Johan Asaduzzaman, Muhammad Astell-Burt, Thomas Aujayeb, Avinash Ausloos, Marcel Azadnajafabad, Sina Aziz, Shahkaar Azzam, Ahmed Y. Babu, Giridhara Rathnaiah Badache, Andreea Corina Badiye, Ashish D. Bahramian, Saeed Baig, Atif Amin Baker, Jennifer L. Bansal, Hansi Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barone, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barrow, Amadou Barteit, Sandra Bashir, Shahid Bashiru, Hameed Akande Basso, João Diogo Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi Basu, Sanjay Batra, Kavita Bauckneht, Matteo Baune, Bernhard T. Beghi, Massimiliano Beiranvand, Maryam Béjot, Yannick Bell, Michelle L. Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Belo, Luis Beloukas, Apostolos Beneke, Alice A. Bettencourt, Paulo J.G. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhala, Neeraj Bhaskar, Sonu Bisulli, Francesca Bjørge, Tone Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan Carvajal, Alejandro Botero Bouaoud, Souad Brayne, Carol Brenner, H Department of Primary Care and Public Health University of East Anglia Norwich United Kingdom Office for Health Improvement and Disparities Department of Health and Social Care London United Kingdom Department of Legal and Economic Studies La Sapienza University Rome Italy Rome Italy Hull York Medical School University of Hull Hull United Kingdom Department of Mathematics and Sciences Ajman University Ajman United Arab Emirates Department of Medicine Memorial University St. John's NL Canada Postgraduate Department University of Sierra Sur Miahuatlan de Porfirio Diaz Mexico Yhteiskuntadatatieteen keskus (Centre for Social Data Science) Helsinki Finland Department of Internal Medicine Federal Medical Centre Abuja Nigeria Research Center for Immunodeficiencies Tehran University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics Karolinska Institutet (Karolinska Institute) Stockholm Sweden Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Department of Biopharmaceutics and Clinical Pharmacy University of Jordan Amman Jordan Medical Research Center Hamad Medical Corporation Doha Qatar Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Medicine Alfaisal University Riyadh Saudi Arabia College of Graduate Health Sciences University of Tennessee Memphis TN United States School of Medicine Sydney NSW Australia Centre for Social Research in Health University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia Internal Medicine and Alcohol Related Disease Unit Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli IRCCS Rome Italy Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences Università Cattolica di Roma (Catholic University of Rome) Rome Italy Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology University of Texas Medical Branch Galveston TX United States Department of Biochemistry Osun State University Osogbo Nigeria Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics University of Medical Sciences Ondo Ondo Nigeria Department of Veteri

Background: Decades of steady improvements in life expectancy in Europe slowed down from around 2011, well before the COVID-19 pandemic, for reasons which remain disputed. We aimed to assess how changes in risk factors and cause-specific death rates in different European countries related to changes in life expectancy in those countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used data and methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to compare changes in life expectancy at birth, causes of death, and population exposure to risk factors in 16 European Economic Area countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden) and the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales) for three time periods: 1990–2011, 2011–19, and 2019–21. Changes in life expectancy and causes of death were estimated with an established life expectancy cause-specific decomposition method, and compared with summary exposure values of risk factors for the major causes of death influencing life expectancy. Findings: All countries showed mean annual improvements in life expectancy in both 1990–2011 (overall mean 0·23 years [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·23 to 0·24]) and 2011–19 (overall mean 0·15 years [0·13 to 0·16]). The rate of improvement was lower in 2011–19 than in 1990–2011 in all countries except for Norway, where the mean annual increase in life expectancy rose from 0·21 years (95% UI 0·20 to 0·22) in 1990–2011 to 0·23 years (0·21 to 0·26) in 2011–19 (difference of 0·03 years). In other countries, the difference in mean annual improvement between these periods ranged from –0·01 years in Iceland (0·19 years [95% UI 0·16 to 0·21] vs 0·18 years [0·09 to 0·26]), to –0·18 years in England (0·25 years [0·24 to 0·25] vs 0·07 years [0·06 to 0·08]). In 2019–21, there was an overall decrease in mean annual life expectancy a

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Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

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LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021年第2期9卷 E130-E143页

作者： Bourne, Rupert R. A. Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Flaxman, Seth Briant, Paul Svitil Taylor, Hugh R. Resnikoff, Serge Casson, Robert James Abdoli, Amir Abu-Gharbieh, Eman Afshin, Ashkan Ahmadieh, Hamid Akalu, Yonas Alamneh, Alehegn Aderaw Alemayehu, Wondu Alfaar, Ahmed Samir Alipour, Vahid Anbesu, Etsay Woldu Androudi, Sofia Arabloo, Jalal Arditi, Aries Asaad, Malke Bagli, Eleni Baig, Atif Amin Barnighausen, Till Winfried Parodi, Maurizio Battaglia Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhattacharyya, Krittika Bijani, Ali Bikbov, Mukharram Bottone, Michele Braithwaite, Tasanee Bron, Alain M. Butt, Zahid A. Cheng, Ching-Yu Chu, Dinh-Toi Cicinelli, Maria Vittoria Coelho, Joao M. Dagnew, Baye Dai, Xiaochen Dana, Reza Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Del Monte, Monte A. Deva, Jenny P. Diaz, Daniel Djalalinia, Shirin Dreer, Laura E. Ehrlich, Joshua R. Ellwein, Leon B. Emamian, Mohammad Hassan Fernandes, Arthur G. Fischer, Florian Friedman, David S. Furtado, Joao M. Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Shilpa Gazzard, Gus Gebremichael, Berhe George, Ronnie Ghashghaee, Ahmad Golechha, Mahaveer Hamidi, Samer Hammond, Billy Randall Hartnett, Mary Elizabeth R. Hartono, Risky Kusuma Hay, Simon, I Heidari, Golnaz Ho, Hung Chak Chi Linh Hoang Househ, Mowafa Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Ingram, April D. Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi Jha, Ravi Prakash Kahloun, Rim Kandel, Himal Kasa, Ayele Semachew Kempen, John H. Keramati, Maryam Khairallah, Moncef Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khanna, Rohit C. Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli Kim, Judy E. Kim, Yun Jin Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Koyanagi, Ai Kurmi, Om P. Lansingh, Van Charles Leasher, Janet L. Leveziel, Nicolas Limburg, Hans Majdan, Marek Manafi, Navid Mansouri, Kaweh McAlinden, Colm Mohammadi, Seyed Farzad Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah Mohammadpourhodki, Reza Mokdad, Ali H. Moosavi, Delaram Morse, Alan R. Naderi, Mehdi Naidoo, Kovin S. Nangia, Vinay Cuong Tat Nguyen Huong Lan Thi Nguyen Ogundimu, Kolawole Olagunju, Andrew T. Ostroff, Samuel M. Panda-Jonas, Songho Anglia Ruskin Univ Vis & Eye Res Inst Cambridge CB1 1PT England Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept & Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Henry M Jackson Sch Int Studies Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Ophthalmol Seattle WA 98195 USA Imperial Coll London Dept Math London England Imperial Coll London WHO Collaborating Ctr Publ Hlth Educ & Training London England Imperial Coll London Dept Primary Care & Publ Hlth London England Univ Melbourne Sch Populat & Global & Hlth Carlton Vic Australia UNSW Sch Optometry & Vis Sci Sydney NSW Australia Brien Holden Vis Inst Sydney NSW Australia Univ Adelaide Dept Ophthalmol Adelaide SA Australia Jahrom Univ Med Sci Dept Parasitol & Mycol Jahrom Iran Univ Sharjah Dept Clin Sci Sharjah U Arab Emirates Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Ophthalm Res Ctr Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Dept Ophthalmol Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Res Inst Endocrine Sci Tehran Iran Shahid Beheshti Univ Med Sci Ophthalm Epidemiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Gondar Dept Med Physiol Gondar Ethiopia Univ Gondar Dept Human Physiol Gondar Ethiopia Debre Markos Univ Dept Human Nutr & Food Sci Debre Markos Ethiopia Fred Hollows Fdn Sydney NSW Australia Berhan Publ Hlth & Eye Care Consultancy Addis Ababa Ethiopia Univ Leipzig Med Ctr Dept Ophthalmol Leipzig Germany Charite Med Univ Berlin Dept Ophthalmol Berlin Germany Iran Univ Med Sci Hlth Management & Econ Res Ctr Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Hlth Econ Dept Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Student Res Comm Tehran Iran Iran Univ Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Samara Univ Dept Publ Hlth Samara Ethiopia Univ Thessaly Dept Med Volos Greece Visibil Metr Dept Res Chappaqua NY USA Univ Texas Houston Dept Plast Surg Houston TX USA Univ Hosp Ioannina Dept Ophthalmol Ioannina Greece Fdn Res & Technol Inst Mol Biol & Biotechnol Ioannina Greece Sultan Zainal Abidin Univ Un

Background To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with dearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UN]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity >= 6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10 degrees visual field around central fixation);and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision= 6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050. Findings In 2020, an estimated 43.3 million (95% UI 37.6-48.4) people were blind, of whom 23.9 million (55%;20.8-26.8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%;147-179) were female;258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%;128-157) were female;and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%;205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28.5% (-29.4 to -27.7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0.3%, -0.8 to -0.2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impainnent increased slightly (2.5%, 1.9 to 3.2;insufficient data were available to calculate this

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The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data

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SCIENTIFIC DATA 2020年第1期7卷 225页

作者： Pastorello, Gilberto Trotta, Carlo Canfora, Eleonora Chu, Housen Christianson, Danielle Cheah, You-Wei Poindexter, Cristina Chen, Jiquan Elbashandy, Abdelrahman Humphrey, Marty Isaac, Peter Polidori, Diego Ribeca, Alessio van Ingen, Catharine Zhang, Leiming Amiro, Brian Ammann, Christof Arain, M. Altaf Ardo, Jonas Arkebauer, Timothy Arndt, Stefan K. Arriga, Nicola Aubinet, Marc Aurela, Mika Baldocchi, Dennis Barr, Alan Beamesderfer, Eric Marchesini, Luca Belelli Bergeron, Onil Beringer, Jason Bernhofer, Christian Berveiller, Daniel Billesbach, Dave Black, Thomas Andrew Blanken, Peter D. Bohrer, Gil Boike, Julia Bolstad, Paul V. Bonal, Damien Bonnefond, Jean-Marc Bowling, David R. Bracho, Rosvel Brodeur, Jason Bruemmer, Christian Buchmann, Nina Burban, Benoit Burns, Sean P. Buysse, Pauline Cale, Peter Cavagna, Mauro Cellier, Pierre Chen, Shiping Chini, Isaac Christensen, Torben R. Cleverly, James Collalti, Alessio Consalvo, Claudia Cook, Bruce D. Cook, David Coursolle, Carole Cremonese, Edoardo Curtis, Peter S. D'Andrea, Ettore da Rocha, Humberto Dai, Xiaoqin Davis, Kenneth J. De Cinti, Bruno de Grandcourt, Agnes De Ligne, Anne De Oliveira, Raimundo C. Delpierre, Nicolas Desai, Ankur R. Di Bella, Carlos Marcelo di Tommasi, Paul Dolman, Han Domingo, Francisco Dong, Gang Dore, Sabina Duce, Pierpaolo Dufrene, Eric Dunn, Allison Dusek, Jiri Eamus, Derek Eichelmann, Uwe ElKhidir, Hatim Abdalla M. Eugster, Werner Ewenz, Cacilia M. Ewers, Brent Famulari, Daniela Fares, Silvano Feigenwinter, Iris Feitz, Andrew Fensholt, Rasmus Filippa, Gianluca Fischer, Marc Frank, John Galvagno, Marta Gharun, Mana Gianelle, Damiano Gielen, Bert Gioli, Beniamino Gitelson, Anatoly Goded, Ignacio Goeckede, Mathias Goldstein, Allen H. Gough, Christopher M. Goulden, Michael L. Graf, Alexander Griebel, Anne Gruening, Carsten Gruenwald, Thomas Hammerle, Albin Han, Shijie Han, Xingguo Hansen, Birger Ulf Hanson, Chad Hatakka, Juha He, Yongtao Hehn, Markus Heinesch, Bernard Hinko-Najera, Nina Hoertnagl, Lukas Hutley, Lindsay Ibrom, Andreas Ikawa, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab Computat Res Div Berkeley CA 94720 USA Univ Tuscia DIBAF I-01100 Viterbo Italy Climate Change Fdn CMCC Euro Mediterranean Ctr I-73100 Lecce Italy Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div Berkeley CA 94720 USA Calif State Univ Sacramento Dept Civil Engn Sacramento CA 95819 USA Michigan State Univ Dept Geog Environm & Spatial Sci E Lansing MI 48823 USA Univ Virginia Dept Comp Sci Charlottesville VA 22904 USA TERN Ecosyst Proc Menzies Creek Vic 3259 Australia Chinese Acad Sci Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling Beijing 100101 Peoples R China Univ Manitoba Dept Soil Sci Winnipeg MB R3T2N2 Canada Agroscope Res Inst Dept Agroecol & Environm CH-8046 Zurich Switzerland McMaster Univ Sch Geog & Earth Sci Hamilton ON L8S4K1V Canada Lund Univ Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci S-22362 Lund Sweden Univ Nebraska Dept Agron & Hort Lincoln NE 68583 USA Univ Melbourne Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci Richmond Vic 3121 Australia Univ Antwerp Res Grp PLECO Dept Biol B-2610 Antwerp Belgium European Commiss Joint Res Ctr I-21027 Ispra Italy Univ Liege TERRA Teaching & Res Ctr B-5030 Gembloux Belgium Finnish Meteorol Inst Helsinki 00560 Finland Univ Calif Berkeley ESPM Berkeley CA 94720 USA Univ Saskatchewan Global Inst Water Secur Saskatoon SK S7N3H5 Canada Environm & Climate Change Canada Climate Res Div Saskatoon SK S7N3H5 Canada Fdn Edmund Mach Res & Innovat Ctr Dept Sustainable Agroecosyst & Bioresources I-38010 San Michele All Adige Italy RUDN Univ Agr Technol Inst Dept Landscape Design & Sustainable Ecosyst Moscow 117198 Russia Minist Dev Durable Environm & Lutte Changements C Direct Marche Carbone Quebec City PQ G1R5V7 Canada Univ Western Australia Sch Agr & Environm Crawley 6009 Australia Tech Univ Dresden Inst Hydrol & Meteorol D-01737 Tharandt Germany Univ Paris Saclay CNRS AgroParisTech Ecol Systemat & Evolut F-91405 Orsay France Univ Nebraska Biol Syst Engn Li

The FLUXNET2015 dataset provides ecosystem-scale data on CO2, water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible.

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Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study (vol 2, pg 144, 2021)

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LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2021年第4期9卷 E408-E408页

作者： Steinmetz, Jaimie D. Vision and Eye Research Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge United Kingdom Biomedical Informatics Seoul National University Hospital Seoul South Korea Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Health Metrics Sciences School of Medicine University of Washington Seattle WA United States Institute of Health Services Research Yonsei University Seoul South Korea Department of Ophthalmology University of Washington Seattle WA United States Department of Mathematics Imperial College London London United Kingdom WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training Imperial College London London United Kingdom Department of Primary Care and Public Health Imperial College London London United Kingdom School of Population and Global Health University of Melbourne Carlton VIC Australia School of Optometry and Vision Science UNSW Sydney NSW Australia Brien Holden Vision Institute Sydney Australia Department of Ophthalmology University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia Department of Parasitology and Mycology Jahrom University of Medical Sciences Jahrom Iran Department of Clinical Sciences University of Sharjah Sharjah United Arab Emirates Ophthalmic Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Department of Ophthalmology Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran Health Services Management Department Qazvin University of Medical Sciences Qazvin Iran Department of Systems Populations and Leadership University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI United States Department of Medicine Sofia Ismail Memorial Medical Centre Bogura Bangladesh The Fred Hollows Foundation Sydney NSW Australia Berhan Public Health & Eye Care Consultancy Addis A

Hospital El Salvador: a novel paradigm of intensive care in response to COVID-19 in central America. Lancet Glob Health 2021;9: e241?42?In this Comment, the conflict of interest statement should have included the following: ?By virtue of their roles within a public hospital or the Ministry of Health, MB, LC, WH, and XS are government employees. The findings and conclusions in the Comment are only those of the authors.? This correction has been made as of Feb 26, 2021.

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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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LANCET 2020年第10258期396卷 1250-1284页

作者： Lozano, Rafael Fullman, Nancy Mumford, John Everett Knight, Megan Barthelemy, Celine M. Abbafati, Cristiana Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd-Allah, Foad Abdollahi, Mohammad Abedi, Aidin Abolhassani, Hassan Abosetugn, Akine Eshete Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes Abrigo, Michael R. M. Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. Adabi, Maryam Adebayo, Oladimeji M. Adekanmbi, Victor Adelson, Jaimie D. Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. Adham, Davoud Advani, Shailesh M. Afshin, Ashkan Agarwal, Gina Agasthi, Pradyumna Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem Agrawal, Anurag Ahmad, Tauseef Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola Alahdab, Fares Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Albertson, Samuel B. Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Alhassan, Robert Kaba Ali, Muhammad Ali, Saqib Alipour, Vahid Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, Francois Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almasi, Ali Almasi-Hashiani, Amir Almasri, Nihad A. Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Almulhim, Abdulaziz M. Alonso, Jordi Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. Amini, Saeed Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Amiri, Fatemeh Amit, Arianna Maever L. Amugsi, Dickson A. Ancuceanu, Robert Anderlini, Deanna Andrei, Catalina Liliana Androudi, Sofia Ansari, Fereshteh Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. Antony, Catherine M. Antriyandarti, Ernoiz Anvari, Davood Anwer, Razique Arabloo, Jalal Arab-Zozani, Morteza Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Aremu, Olatunde Arnlov, Johan Asaad, Malke Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran Asadi-Pooya, Ali A. Ashbaugh, Charlie Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Ausloos, Marcel Avila-Burgos, Leticia Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Ayano, Getinet Ayanore, Martin Amogre Aynalem, Getie Lake Aynalem, Yared Asmare Ayza, Muluken Altaye Azari, Samad Azzopardi, Peter S. Darshan, B. B. Babaee, Ebrahim Badiye, Ashish D. Bahrami, Mohammad Amin Babaee, Ebrahim Badiye, Ashish D. Bahrami, Mohammad Amin Baig, Atif Amin Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein Bakhtiari, Ahad Bakkannavar, Shankar M. Balachandran, Arun Balassyano, Shelly Banach, Maciej Banerjee, Srikanta K. Banik, Palash Chandra Bante Univ Washington Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat Seattle WA 98105 USA Univ Washington Sch Med Dept Hlth Metr Sci Seattle WA USA Univ Washington Dept Appl Math Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Plast Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Dept Global Hlth Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Div Plast & Reconstruct Surg Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Washington Seattle WA 98195 USA Univ Roma La Sapienza Dept Jurid & Econ Studies Rome Italy Univ Tehran Med Sci Adv Diagnost & Intervent Radiol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Pharm Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Urol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Hlth Policy Management & Econ Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Multiple Sclerosis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Endocrinol & Metab Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Publ Hlth Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Environm Hlth Engn Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Med Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Sch Nursing & Midwifery Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Dept Epidemiol & Biostat Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Pediat Chron Kidney Dis Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Tehran Heart Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Hlth Equ Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Digest Dis Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Metabol & Genom Res Ctr Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Res Inst Tehran Iran Univ Tehran Med Sci Canc Biol Res Ctr Tehran Iran Cairo Univ Dept Neurol Cairo Egypt Cairo Univ Natl Hepatol & Trop Med Res Inst Cairo Egypt Cairo Univ Dept Med Parasitol Cairo Egypt Cairo Univ Dept Urol Cairo Egypt Cairo Univ Dept Publ Hlth & Community Cairo Egypt Univ Calif Los Angeles Dept Orthopaed Surg Los Angeles CA USA Karolinska Univ Hosp Huddinge Sweden Debre Berhan Univ Dept Publ Hlth Debre Be

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (>= 65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care;outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0-100 based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC ef

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